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This is the translation of an interview by Neşe Düzel with Baskın Oran that appeared in the Turkish liberal daily, Radikal on January 14, 2002.
The article was, of course, translated by the Bridge.
NEŞE DÜZEL
WHY? Baskın Oran
Prime Minister Ecevit is going to America on one of his most important visits in recent history. In a world which is reshaping in the wake of the September 11th attack, it appears likely that Turkey's role, particularly in the Middle East, will be debated in Washington during this visit. At the same time, it is expected that, within the context of Turkey's transparency problem, 'habitual corruption' will be discussed during the Ecevit-Bush meeting. Other matters which are thought to be on the agenda for this important visit are the initiation by America of a military campaign against Iraq to overthrow Saddam, whether a Kurdish state will be formed in northern Iraq, and what will be expected of Turkey in the event of a US-Iraqi conflict. I spoke to the head of the Department of International Affairs of the Politics Faculty at the University of Ankara, Professor Baskın Oran about the possible consequences of this visit, full of significance for Turkey and those living in this country. He has written ten books on Turko-Greek relations, the Kurdish state, globalisation, nationalism and minorities. In addition, a two-volume book entitled 'Turkish Foreign Policy', the product of three and a half year's labour on the part of Baskın Oran along with 14 academics and the writer, was published last month by İletişim Yayınları.
This visit goes far beyond a run-of-the-mill visit by a Turkish Prime Minster to Washington. It is very important, not only from Turkey's point of view, but also for America.
America experienced a tragedy on September 11th, but the American Administration was also presented with a tremendous opportunity. This opportunity is the opportunity for America to retain its position as the 'hegemonic state' in the world. America, which used the Soviet threat to intimidate the world during the Cold War period, has now been presented with the opportunity of the 'terror threat'.
You say that America wishes to continue its role as hegemonic state. What kind of role is this?
A hegemonic state imposes its will on the world by means of its economy, military and culture. Basically, the Soviet Union dealt a blow to America when it collapsed in 1991. The Western world no longer needed to line up with America. It was precisely for this reason that NATO immediately changed its aim and began to speak of the threat to the Western world from so-called rogue states and terrorism. But this lacked credibility up until September 11th; Europe was not worried about terrorism. Following the events of September 11th, America was presented with the opportunity to say 'What did I tell you? The plague of terror may come to haunt you.' Essentially, a hegemonic state uses a two-stage strategy to consolidate its hegemony. First of all, it bestows favours on its allies to prevent a rival to it from appearing on the scene. But bestowing favours is not enough. After a while, countries upon which favours are bestowed set themselves up as rivals to the hegemonic state. The second stage is thus for the hegemonic state to intimidate its allies. The only salvation for these countries then is to seek refuge in it.
In the book entitled 'Turkish Foreign Policy' recently published by 14 writers under your editorship, you used some terms to which we are unaccustomed. You say that America needs 'axis countries' in order to maintain its presence in regions of conflict. What is an axis country?
An axis country is a regional country possessing a certain military strength and cultural consistency, where the economic situation is also not too bad. These are also called 'emerging markets'. Axis countries are used by the hegemonic power as an extension of itself.
Is Turkey also being given the role of axis country?
This is what is wanted. Indeed, this is why money is coming to Turkey. We are told 'Sort out the economy, stop corruption.' Certainly Turkey as an axis country will be stronger, its economy will get back onto its feet, but at the same time it will become America's spearhead in the Middle East. It will submit even more to US policy, its relative freedom will diminish. For being an axis country will entail the forging of bonds that cannot be untied. But Turkey is experiencing the most difficult period in its history. If money does not come in from outside, the cogs will cease to turn. Thus Turkey is in no position to say no to the USA.
From what point of view is Turkey important to America?
The hegemonic state cannot take care of every region in the world. It chooses an 'axis country' for itself in every region and operates by means of it. For example, it concentrates car factories there, it turns that country into its general distributor, strengthens it militarily, uses the bases there, or even exploits it culturally as an operational base. It passes on to the axis country technologies that for it have become obsolete. In the Middle East, Israel was America's axis country. Certainly, it was flawed in that it was a target for the Arab countries, but it was strong in economic and military terms, its culture was Western. But Sharon's policy made it much more flawed. It turned the Arab world and world public opinion against its protector, the USA. Now America has to find a less flawed axis country. This country is Turkey. If America can pour Turkey into the mould of the shape it desires, it will obtain a much more important extension in the region. Turkey will acquire the status of being a more important country than Israel.
If Turkey becomes an axis country, what will be the nature of its relations with the European Union?
It may become stronger vis-a-vis the EU. America in its own interests wants a country that is on better terms with the EU. In fact, there was initially a desire in the 1960's on the part of the EU to make Turkey an axis country but the opportunity was lost. Greece took advantage of this opportunity and entered the EU. First it became the EU's axis country and then its partner. We, on the other hand, froze relations with the EU in 1976 under Ecevit. Turkey now wishes to be the USA's axis country but is not putting a stop to corruption.
You say America maintains its power by giving rewards and intimidating. What reward will be given to us in return for being an axis country?
To create an axis country is to bestow favours. Ten billion dollars of credit is a favour. Turkey 's reward will be in the form of the arrival of money and the promise not to set up Kurdistan. The Baku-Ceyhan pipeline may also come into being. America bestows favours on China, Russia and the EU in order to maintain its status as hegemonic country. It remains silent when China oppresses East Turkistan and Russia does the same to Chechnya. It ensures that Europe has a regular supply of Middle Eastern petroleum at world prices. The EU is 95% dependent on Middle Eastern petroleum.
All right, which areas will be used to intimidate Turkey, to scare it into being an axis country?
This is the setting up of Kurdistan. In fact, America has no wish to set up Kurdistan. For the setting up of Kurdistan will turn Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey into its own enemies. Moreover, Kurdistan as a landlocked country cannot be as strong as Israel. It would cause the USA plenty of trouble. But the USA will constantly make the threat 'Look out or I'll set up Kurdistan' to these four countries. For as long as Turkey fails to deal with the Kurdish problem by means of democracy, it will face this threat. Turkey should not fear the setting up of Kurdistan. If Turkey democratises and its economy also improves, if it incorporates the East and South East into the Turkish market, there is nothing to fear. This requires that the Kurdish identity and all other sub-identities be granted free expression, and at the same time that work and a livelihood be given to these people. Then if not one but three Kurdistans are set up, our Kurds will not wish to join up with those down below.
Our policy is based on the fear of Iraq being divided and a Kurdish state being set up. Why in your view does Turkey not realise that democracy is the means to overcome the Kurdistan fear?
There exists in this country something known as the 'Sevres syndrome'. Sevres paranoia is still alive in Turkey. Turkey today is no longer at all in the Sevres political environment. Nobody wants to divide Turkey. Does it make any sense to divide the country you want to turn into an axis country? What will divide Turkey is the atmosphere created by discriminating against our own people, non-Muslims, Kurds. Basically, it is Sevres paranoia that threatens to divide Turkey.
Who is afflicted by this paranoia?
In the first place, Kemalists of the 1930 vintage. They say 'If the Kurdish sub-identity is expressed, if Kurds start to speak Kurdish this nation will divide.' Secondly, those who benefit economically from the civil war environment. Thirdly, those who feel uneasy about transparency coming to this country and the ending of this environment of fear that even ensured that Susurluk was covered up. The "deep state" for instance. If there had been transparency, would Susurluk have happened? Sevres paranoia allows Susurluk to continue. Fourthly, people, groups and institutions that fear loss of power, strength and income if there is transparency. They keep this Sevres paranoia alive, arguing that power is slipping from our hands. If because of this paranoia the expression of sub-identities continues to be suppressed, citizens will be compulsory citizens and will not covert to voluntary citizenship. Compulsory citizenship also opens the way to terrorism. A country is strong if its citizens are happy to live voluntarily in that country. If millions of people are waiting for the chance to escape from Turkey, that country is not strong. Look, two factors have the potential to divide Turkey. One is the denial of the opportunity of expression to sub-identities, in other words obstructing democracy. The second is the obstruction to economic recovery resulting from the siphoning off of funds.
What requests in your view will US President Bush convey to Prime Minister Ecevit?
Ecevit was invited to America. This means that America will make requests of Turkey. There are two reasons why Ecevit was summoned. America will ask for two things in order to make Turkey into an axis country. It will say 'First of all don't raise any objections to the bombing of Iraq. Secondly, carry out legal reforms to things like tendering processes and banking laws, stop the siphoning off of funds.' Corruption can only be ended under a transparent administration; it will take a long time to introduce a transparent administration and economy to Turkey. Embezzlement and siphoning off were also going on in Turkey in Ataturk's time. The phenomenon known as 'aferizm' did not come about in the Özal period. 'Aferizm' is used to refer to the way İş Bankasi was used to siphon off money from the state. This came about in Ataturk's time. It started in the 1920's and carried on through the 1930's. There has always been embezzlement in Turkey in every period. But in Ataturk's time Turkey was relatively free in its foreign policy. Now it is different. It is necessary to strengthen Turkey in terms of its economy and democracy.
Given that transparency, openness, accountability and inspection are the means by which plunder, pillage and robbery in Turkey will be ended, does America want Turkey to become transparent?
Yes, that is what it wants. This is humiliating for Turkey. For it is Americans and not Turks who want to put an end to the plunder of Turkey. For America wants a stronger spearhead in order to use us as an axis country. A Turkey that cannot service its debt and grow strong economically is of no use to America. And also, of course, for as long as a country's administrators, bureaucrats and businessmen steal the people's money and accept bribes, foreign investment in that country will not be rational. We shouldn't think of imperialism in nineteenth-century terms. The request that America is making to Turkey is 'The time has come to stop up the hole at the bottom of the bucket'. This is a request that is in Turkey's, and the Turkish people's, interest. In the first place tendering processes and the banking laws need to be made fit for a modern capitalist country. Turkey must cease to be a wild capitalist country. America went through this at the end of the nineteenth century. Now it is our turn. America in its own interests wants this period to be short. This is also in our interest, but unfortunately developments in Turkey affecting culture or even infrastructure have always been in response to external pressure.
An Iraqi-American conflict is imminent. What kind of role will Turkey assume in such a conflict?
Turkey is in no position to object to the use of İncirlik. But it will not participate in a military campaign waged against Iraq. Turkey is pressurising Saddam to permit the arms control commission because it does not want this conflict. The American hawks, however, do not want Saddam to weaken. For they will have to find another excuse to heighten the atmosphere of tension. Saddam, Somalia and Yemen are all excuses to create an environment of fear, like in the McCarthy period in the past. September 11th scared both the American people and the people of the world. Now a child wearing a T-shirt with the slogan 'Neither Bush, nor Bin Laden' is expelled from school. Dark-skinned people are taken off planes and detained. In a land of freedom like America, these are things that were only experienced in the McCarthy era. They all show that we have returned to those years of fear at the beginning of the cold war.
Is Ecevit, known for his friendship if not outright admiration for Saddam, capable of assuming this role?
Ecevit is now saying 'The important thing for us is Iraq's territorial integrity, not Saddam.' In plain language this means 'The most important thing for us is that Kurdistan is not set up.' Whereas up until now Ecevit has fought to prevent the overthrow of Saddam. But the American delegation that came to Turkey headed by the hawk Liebermann brought Ecevit round to this position. Bush is now preparing to meet an Ecevit who has been knocked into shape. Otherwise Turkey, its President, Prime Minister and Chief of General Staff, was until yesterday singing in chorus 'Don't attack Iraq in any way.' The chorus has stopped. Turkey in economic need is in no position to offer much resistance as far as Iraq is concerned. Ten billion dollars of credit has yet to come. They only give, bit by bit, as much as they get.
What do they want to get?
In the short term, not making too much noise about Iraq. And in the medium term, preventing corruption in Turkey.
Does America prefer, in order to persuade our administrators to become an axis country, to ignore our democratic deficit, or does it prefer us to become a democratic and rich country, in order to make us a model for the Islamic world?
It cannot ignore our democratic deficit. The USA is not, as in the past, opposed to democracy in Turkey. Transparency in the economy must henceforth inevitably be reflected in the form of democracy in the political arena.
What to you expect to change following Ecevit's US visit?
If Saddam does not weaken his stance, I expect the bombing of Iraq. Secondly, I expect measures to make it a little more difficult to siphon off funds in Turkey.