The Science of Politics

The complex world of politics is one which we would normally believe to be more of an art than a science. The Kurds with their limited political experience find it an awesome task to ry to fathom this world of possibilities, intrigues and power games. Most of our politicians, if not all, have no idea as to how probability theory can give us a measure of what is likely to happen in tight multi-factorial situations preferring instead to play guessing games and offer unrealistic and unsound scenarios of possibilities based on personal preference, fear and prejudice. In the modern science and technology of politics, possibilities may be represented by what are called Truth Tables. These are used to clarify, solve complex problems or predict events based on empirical assessments and past experiences. A truth table is, therefore, simply a table of possible outcomes against two-way values of Yes and No or 1 and 0 against each logical entity comprising the outcome or function being evaluated.

The following is a Truth Table showing the various possibilities (s) concerning the Iraq/Kurdistan possibilities and the occurrence of each of the events represented by the column headings. For example: State 1 is the situation where The Events of Column 2 or (A) and Column 6 or (E) will be True while none of the others will be True. In other words The Function represented by State 1 may be expressed in Terms of Boolean Algebra as follows:

State 1 = A AND E AND NOT(B OR C OR D OR F OR G)

State 2 = B AND E AND NOT(A OR C OR D OR F OR G)

…

State 10= C AND D AND NOT(A OR B OR E OR F OR G)

State	Iraq Remaining as it is with Sanctions (A)	Iraq Remaining as it is with Sanctions Removed (B)	Regime changed (C)	Kurds Retaken (D)	Kurds Remain as they are at present (E)	Federal Kurdish in a Changed Iraq (F)	Kurdistan Becomes Independent (G)
1	Yes	No	No	No	Yes	No	No
2	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	No
3	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes
4	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	No
5	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
6	No	No	Yes	No	No	No	Yes
7	Yes	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
8	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	No	No
9	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	No
10	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	No

Truth Table 1. The States

In Truth Table 1 there are 10 States. Each State will have its own conditions and factors which we will assess in table 2 below.

To help demonstrate the influence of Nations and/or Groups on the occurrence of a State, Truth Table 2 is shown below where the columns are headed with the possible State of Affairs, the rows are marked with the names of the nations or groups involved in the decision-making/influencing process which affect the occurrence or otherwise of that State and the last row but one represents the total points scored for each State, made up of the sum of the weighting figures for each nation or group influencing positively the outcome to be realised. A YES in a column indicates that the nation or group adds the value to the sum of the weighting in full to the likelihood of the realisation of that State, in the last row but-one of the table. A Yes/No entry has a value of only half the associated weighting and a NO entry will add a weighting of zero.

Those decision makers who are usually of similar inclination are colour coded and the total points they muster are added up at the bottom of the table to indicate their combined influence on the political arena.

For the purposes of illustration only I have devised a system of weighting based on my experience of how a particular nation or group of nations would react to the Iraq/Kurdistan situation and the importance of the nation or group and its influence on the decision-making process in world politics vis-à-vis Iraq and the problems of the Middle East in general. The results of Truth Table 2, demonstrate the likelihood of each State on that basis and indicate the most likely ones to be States 5 and 10 respectively. These are:

· State 5: A Federal Kurdistan within a New Iraqi System or,

· State 10: A New fully integrated Iraq with Kurdistan taken back under the wing of the new Government

It must be noted that Nations, Groups and Blocks do not necessarily share the same views or inclinations vis-à-vis every situation in the world. Therefore, we must re-populate these tables using different weightings for every different political test.

What if we wanted to see the likelihood of only the States which would indicate the possibilities of a Federal or Independent Kurdistan? Those states are :

Kurdish Gains = State 3 OR State 5 OR State 6 OR State 7.

Which equals :

B AND G AND NOT(A OR C OR D OR E OR F) OR C AND F AND NOT(A OR B OR D OR E OR G) OR C AND G AND NOT(A OR B OR D OR E OR F) OR A AND G AND NOT(B OR C OR D OR E OR F)

Optimising the above expression will produce a much shorter expression:

NOT(D+E).(NOT(A+B).C.(F*G)+NOT(E+F).G.(A*B))

Where “*” is the Exclusive OR operator, “.” Is the Logic AND, and “+” is the Logic OR. The Exclusive OR expression, A*B is equivalent to A.NOT(B) + B.NOT(

	Weighting	State 1	State 2	State 3	State 4	State 5	State 6	State 7	State 8	State 9	State 10
The Americans	100	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes/No	No	No	No	Yes
The British	100	No	No	No	Yes/No	Yes/No	No	No	No	No	Yes
Iraqi Opposition	10	No	No	No	Yes/No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes
The Arabs	30	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes/No
Iran	10	No	Yes/No	No	Yes/No	Yes/No	No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes
Turkey	50	No	Yes	No	No	Yes/No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Syria	10	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
The EEC	100	No	Yes/no	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes	Yes/No	Yes/No	No	No	No
The Russians	40	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes/No	Yes	Yes
Israel	50	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes/No	No	No	Yes
India	20	Yes/No	Yes/No	No	Yes/No	Yes/No	No	No	Yes/No	Yes	Yes
South East Asia	30	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No
South America	20	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes	Yes	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No
The Islamic World	30	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
China	30	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
African Countries	30	No	Yes	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No
Kurdish Proplr’s National Struggle.	50	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	No
Performance of Kurdish Leadership	50	Yes/No	Yes/no	Yes/No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	No
Total	440	Western
Total	100	Arab
Total	60	Neutral
Total	60	Special
Total	100	Kurdish
Total	760

The Science of Politics

The Ten States of Truth Table 1 Represent: