The Science of Politics

The complex world of politics is one which we would normally believe to be more of an art than a science. The Kurds with their limited political experience find it an awesome task to ry to fathom this world of possibilities, intrigues and power games. Most of our politicians, if not all, have no idea as to how probability theory can give us a measure of what is likely to happen in tight multi-factorial situations preferring instead to play guessing games and offer unrealistic and unsound scenarios of possibilities based on personal preference, fear and prejudice. In the modern science and technology of politics, possibilities may be represented by what are called Truth Tables. These are used to clarify, solve complex problems or predict events based on empirical assessments and past experiences. A truth table is, therefore, simply a table of possible outcomes against two-way values of Yes and No or 1 and 0 against each logical entity comprising the outcome or function being evaluated.

The following is a Truth Table showing the various possibilities (s) concerning the Iraq/Kurdistan possibilities and the occurrence of each of the events represented by the column headings. For example: State 1 is the situation where The Events of Column 2 or (A) and Column 6 or (E) will be True while none of the others will be True. In other words The Function represented by State 1 may be expressed in Terms of Boolean Algebra as follows:

State 1 = A AND E AND NOT(B OR C OR D OR F OR G)

State 2 = B AND E AND NOT(A OR C OR D OR F OR G)

…

State 10= C AND D AND NOT(A OR B OR E OR F OR G)

State	Iraq Remaining as it is with Sanctions (A)	Iraq Remaining as it is with Sanctions Removed (B)	Regime changed (C)	Kurds Retaken (D)	Kurds Remain as they are at present (E)	Federal Kurdish in a Changed Iraq (F)	Kurdistan Becomes Independent (G)
1	Yes	No	No	No	Yes	No	No
2	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	No
3	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes
4	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	No
5	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
6	No	No	Yes	No	No	No	Yes
7	Yes	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
8	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	No	No
9	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	No
10	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	No

Truth Table 1. The States

In Truth Table 1 there are 10 States. Each State will have its own conditions and factors which we will assess in table 2 below.

To help demonstrate the influence of Nations and/or Groups on the occurrence of a State, Truth Table 2 is shown below where the columns are headed with the possible State of Affairs, the rows are marked with the names of the nations or groups involved in the decision-making/influencing process which affect the occurrence or otherwise of that State and the last row but one represents the total points scored for each State, made up of the sum of the weighting figures for each nation or group influencing positively the outcome to be realised. A YES in a column indicates that the nation or group adds the value to the sum of the weighting in full to the likelihood of the realisation of that State, in the last row but-one of the table. A Yes/No entry has a value of only half the associated weighting and a NO entry will add a weighting of zero.

Those decision makers who are usually of similar inclination are colour coded and the total points they muster are added up at the bottom of the table to indicate their combined influence on the political arena.

For the purposes of illustration only I have devised a system of weighting based on my experience of how a particular nation or group of nations would react to the Iraq/Kurdistan situation and the importance of the nation or group and its influence on the decision-making process in world politics vis-à-vis Iraq and the problems of the Middle East in general. The results of Truth Table 2, demonstrate the likelihood of each State on that basis and indicate the most likely ones to be States 5 and 10 respectively. These are:

· State 5: A Federal Kurdistan within a New Iraqi System or,

· State 10: A New fully integrated Iraq with Kurdistan taken back under the wing of the new Government

It must be noted that Nations, Groups and Blocks do not necessarily share the same views or inclinations vis-à-vis every situation in the world. Therefore, we must re-populate these tables using different weightings for every different political test.

What if we wanted to see the likelihood of only the States which would indicate the possibilities of a Federal or Independent Kurdistan? Those states are :

Kurdish Gains = State 3 OR State 5 OR State 6 OR State 7.

Which equals :

B AND G AND NOT(A OR C OR D OR E OR F) OR C AND F AND NOT(A OR B OR D OR E OR G) OR C AND G AND NOT(A OR B OR D OR E OR F) OR A AND G AND NOT(B OR C OR D OR E OR F)

Optimising the above expression will produce a much shorter expression:

NOT(D+E).(NOT(A+B).C.(F*G)+NOT(E+F).G.(A*B))

Where “*” is the Exclusive OR operator, “.” Is the Logic AND, and “+” is the Logic OR. The Exclusive OR expression, A*B is equivalent to A.NOT(B) + B.NOT(

The Ten States of Truth Table 1 Represent:

	Weighting	State 1	State 2	State 3	State 4	State 5	State 6	State 7	State 8	State 9	State 10
The Americans	100	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes/No	No	No	No	Yes
The British	100	No	No	No	Yes/No	Yes/No	No	No	No	No	Yes
Iraqi Opposition	10	No	No	No	Yes/No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes
The Arabs	30	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes/No
Iran	10	No	Yes/No	No	Yes/No	Yes/No	No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes
Turkey	50	No	Yes	No	No	Yes/No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Syria	10	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
The EEC	100	No	Yes/no	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes	Yes/No	Yes/No	No	No	No
The Russians	40	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes/No	Yes	Yes
Israel	50	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes/No	No	No	Yes
India	20	Yes/No	Yes/No	No	Yes/No	Yes/No	No	No	Yes/No	Yes	Yes
South East Asia	30	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No
South America	20	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes	Yes	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No
The Islamic World	30	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
China	30	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
African Countries	30	No	Yes	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes/No
Kurdish Proplr’s National Struggle.	50	Yes/No	Yes/No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	No
Performance of Kurdish Leadership	50	Yes/No	Yes/no	Yes/No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	No
Total	440	Western
Total	100	Arab
Total	60	Neutral
Total	60	Special
Total	100	Kurdish
Total	760
	Value	85	360	190	425	510	315	410	245	255	495
	%tage	11.6	47.4	26	58.22	67.1	43.15	53.94	32.23	33.55	65.13

Basic Analysis

The likelihood of the least likely outcome (State 1) of Truth Table 1, only adds up to 85 points. This State predicts the preservation of the current status quo without any changes at all.

However, the truth values of YES or NO are by no means rigid and may be varied and modified by political pressure and campaigning, aimed at gathering the most points for a particular outcome (State). Each nation or group, too, has its own facilities and methods to influence the process of decision making. States 3, 6 and 7, for example, would be ideal for the Kurds under favourable circumstances. However State 5 is acceptable for the current state of affairs and the current assumed entries in the Truth Table. Therefore we need to target specific nations, groups or blocks to “persuade” them as to the justice of our cause and enlist their support to achieve the best outcomes we wish for.

Note that the block of nations and groups marked red (non-Arab, non-Islamic and Western nations), have a total score of 440 out of 760 or 57.9%. They are followed by the Arab/Islamic block with 100 out of 760 or 13.15%. The Kurds can also muster the same influence because of the past atrocities committed by Saddam against them and the sympathy which they have managed to acquire.

The other two blocks are the Russians and the Indians with 15.78% between them.

The blocks which carry the greatest weights are therefore the Western Block Among them we see opportunities mainly with the Europeans, and Americans. However, they are not lightly influenced by common interests with their Arab and Islamic friends. Thus at present, we see a block which has a minor influence of only 13.15% of the international community affecting a block which ahs an influence of nearly 60%.

The Arabs and Islamic countries are highly unlikely to support any Kurdish claim to the Right to Self-Determination. The Neutral Countries are however receptive of such ideas and they too should be courted to provide moral and political support. Furthermore, groups such as the African countries and those of South America have their influence on the biggest Western groups too.

What Must be True to Achieve the desired results

Shows very clearly that the most important logic (States) require that: Iraq and Kurdistan must Not be retaken by Iraq (D) and not remain as they are (E). Given that we have two inclusive alternative States:

Note: By Inclusive Alternatives we mean two possible states which do not exclude each other out while Exclusive Alternatives cannot co-exit together.

From Table 2 we see that the total points, actually scored by all ten States is 3290 out of a possible 7600. This is so because the ten states we have depicted are only one set of all possible occurrences. The points scored by the four States representing possible Kurdish gain are:

Which give us a likelihood of 1425/3290 or %43.21.This is a reasonable one for the assumptions and circumstances we have assumed, although a more than 50% result would make gain more likely and feasible.

The linkage between the Arab and Islamic world on the one hand and the Western one changes from time to time. Weaknesses between them always increases the percentage for Kurdish gain while the opposite is also true. That is quite clearly shown by the Gulf war, the 11^th. of September atrocities and the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

The influence of Turkey and Russia today is not as significant as it used to be although from the practical point of view Turkey and Iran could present an obstacle if the Western block insisted on taking them onboard at all times.

The Kurdish political analysts should therefore consider getting support from those who are not at present following in the footsteps of the big block or have a non-aligned policy towards the region such. For example, although getting close to the Arabs can be beneficial for some African states, there are nevertheless States which are sympathetic to the Kurdish cause. Equally so is the situation with Latin America. We must look for opportunities everywhere to increase the support for Kurdish rights.

A Clear Message is Needed

However, a clear and unconfused message must be sent to those whose support we need and seek. As an internal matter, we are very unlikely to get any support because there is a well-known phobia associated with what is commonly termed “Internal Affairs of other Member States”. Thus, we are cutting our own throats when we constantly refer to the preservation of Iraq’s Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity and declare our desire to remain Iraqis. Our enemies coach our leaders into making utterances which are designed to shut the door on any possible help or assistance we may be able to get. This stance will lose us all external support, alienate all but those who are very keen to keep us subjugated and oppressed or those who want justification to do nothing about our plight and still claim to be our friends. What State or power block will entertain putting our case in the agenda at the UN Security Council, knowing our leaders are constantly rejecting the fact that we do have a genuine and Just Case?

Therefore, the Leadership is exaggerating the dangers and are simply doing as they are told without giving enough consideration to the facts of the matter. This article it is hoped will demonstrate the great sacrifice which is being made for very little gain if any.

The reason the Palestinians are winning the struggle is precisely their clear and unequivocal message. No one has any doubt about what they want and insist on and that is why they are getting support even from inside Israel itself. Their war against Israel is not the result of declaring their wish to exercise their right to self determination but because of violent actions which both sides are undertaking against each other. No one on the Kurdish side is suggesting suicide bombers attacking Baghdad, Ankara, Damascus or Tehran. Therefore, it is highly unlikely these Sates will send their tanks and planes to bomb the Kurds with Western protection in place and the world watching every move.

And, therefore, as long as the Kurds declare their allegiance to Iraq no one is ready or willing to support such an unclear and hesitant cause just as no one will get on a train whose destination is unclear or unknown. The Kurdish leaders have still to realise this unbending principle as a result of which they are keeping the Kurds where they are and preventing the cause from evolving and developing along its natural pat