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Email Soccer League
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This web page is to help give some general goal
scoring advice to managers playing the free Play By Email soccer
simulator SESL. For more details, Email : the Commissioner |
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Goal Scoring - the importance of star FW players SL 20+
- by Athol Kay
SL30 FW is SIX times more likely to score than a SL15 FW !!! read on.....
First
- Shot allocation. The more OFF a player makes, the greater the
chance he will get to have a shot allocated to him to shoot.
Second - To see if the shot is actually "on target" and would go
into the goal. The chance for no target is the shooters SL*3, plus
5, 15 or 25% for shooting from DF, MF or FW areas.
Third - Beating the Goalkeeper. GK's save shots 60% of the time, +2%
for every SL greater than the shooter, and -2% for every SL less than the
shooter to a maximum or minimum save rate of 90% and 10%.
So goal scoring ability is in a sense the players SL^3. Lets assume
for arguments sake that your team has an OFF of 80 and playing the Normal
tactic, and is going to get 8 shots on average against an SL20 GK.
| Shots | On Target% | Score% | Ave goals a game | |||||||
| SL | DF | MF | FW | DF | MF | FW | - | DF | MF | FW |
| 5 | 0.125 | 0.375 | 0.500 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 10 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| 10 | 0.250 | 0.750 | 1.000 | 35 | 45 | 55 | 20 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| 15 | 0.375 | 1.125 | 1.500 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 30 | 0.06 | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| 20 | 0.500 | 1.500 | 2.000 | 65 | 75 | 85 | 40 | 0.13 | 0.45 | 0.68 |
| 25 | 0.625 | 1.875 | 2.500 | 80 | 90 | 100 | 50 | 0.25 | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| 30 | 0.750 | 2.250 | 3.000 | 95 | 100 | 100 | 60 | 0.42 | 1.35 | 1.80 |
| 35 | 0.875 | 2.620 | 3.500 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 70 | 0.61 | 1.84 | 2.45 |
| 40 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 80 | 0.80 | 2.40 | 3.20 |
As you can see an SL30 FW would score an average of 1.8 goals a game in
this little example, while a SL15 FW would score an average of 0.32 goals
a game. So while the SL30 is twice the SL of the SL15, his goal
scoring value is SIX times greater than the SL15.
Also note that any player in the SL5-10 range is basically worthless for
goal scoring. Also the SL15 range is still pretty lame, three SL15
FWs would probably rustle up a goal between them - remember too that 80
OFF getting 8 shots is probably playing against GP 20 and DEF 50 - not
that great a defense.
Interestingly, a SL20 DF scores as many times as an SL10 FW, and adds 10 GP and 20 DEF as well.
In summary - a SL 20 FW may average twice the goals of a SL 15 FW.
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How
Do I Get Star Players?
True stars belonging to other teams usually have managers that will not part with them for anything other than a star of yours or a future star and a big pile of cash TP and CP.
The auction does has some special goodies it's true, but is not reliable enough to build a team around. Hope to get lucky, but don't expect to.
In summary - a SL 20 FW is going to average twice the goals of a SL 15 FW, so plan your TP/CP carefully and build up a couple of star players (SL20+) as the forward line of your team. |
Is
it Worth Coaching My FW Players Above SL19? OK, so the SESL ageing Skill Loss tables are harsh - but you want to score goals, right? Then do the maths and accept any good team needs a few star players upfront. Coaching or Training to SL 19 is sensible to avoid unnecessary ageing skill loss, but a manager must consider taking a few of his players above this threshold to succeed. Remember - a SL30 FW is way way more useful than two SL 15 FW's! |