An Older World

With the continuation of fertility decline and increase in life expectancy, the population of the world will age much faster in the next half century than previously. The median age increased from 23.5 years in 1950 to 26.4 years in 1999. By 2050, the median age is projected to reach 37.8 years.

The proportion of children, less than 15 years old, declined from 34 per cent in 1950 to 30 per cent in 1999 while the proportion of older persons, aged 60 or over, increased from 8 to 10 per cent over the same period. By 2050, it is expected, according to the medium variant projection, that the proportion of children will have declined by one third of its 1999 level, to 20 per cent, and that the proportion of older persons will have more than doubled, to 22 per cent, exceeding the proportion of children for the first time in human history.

The majority of older persons are women. Among those aged 60 years or older, 55 per cent are women. In addition, among the oldest old (80 years or older), 65 per cent are women. The reason is that women generally have lower death rates at every age. The percentage of women in older age groups is higher in the more developed regions than in the less developed regions due to larger differences in life expectancy between the sexes in the more developed regions.

Older men are much more likely than older women to be married. While 70 per cent of older men are currently married, the corresponding figure for older women is 43 per cent. Most older persons without a spouse have been widowed. Women are more likely to outlive their spouses because they have lower death rates than men at every age and, on average, are younger than their husbands.

The number of working age persons per older person is declining rapidly. The potential support ratio (the number of persons aged 15-64 years per older person aged 65 years or older) indicates the dependency burden on potential workers. The impact of demographic ageing is visible in the potential support ratio, which is falling in both more and less developed regions. Between 1999 and 2050, the potential support ratio will decline from 5 working age persons per older person to 2 working age persons per older person in more developed regions, and in less developed regions from 12 to 4 working age persons per older person.

Published in: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, The World at Six Billion. (ESA/P/WP.154), 12 October 1999.

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